IIFT International Business and Management Review Journal
Noor Sehgal1
1Lady Shri Ram College for Women, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India
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This article quantifies the effective protection facing India’s agricultural exports to the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) under the ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement in Goods (AIFTA) from 2010 to 2024. Using a quantity-based Kee, Nicita and Olarreaga framework with Heckman two-step correction applied to 24 HS-2 agricultural chapters (HS 01-24), the study estimates ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs) of non-tariff measures (NTMs) for each chapter and year. The results show that 11 of 24 chapters—covering roughly 46% of all agricultural HS-2 lines—face positive and rising NTM AVEs, while AIFTA preferential tariffs converge to near zero. Average simple-mean tariffs fall from 7.1% in 2010 to 0.3% in 2024. Over the same period, average simple-mean NTM AVEs rise from 17.1% to 32.5%, leaving total effective protection at 32.8% in 2024. In the most protected chapters—cereals (HS 10), animal products (HS 05), live plants (HS 06), beverages (HS 22), food residues (HS 23) and vegetable plaiting materials (HS 14)—NTM AVEs by 2024 range from 93% to 100%, entirely offsetting tariff elimination. These findings imply that AIFTA’s tariff liberalisation, while formally complete, has not delivered commensurate market access in a majority of sensitive agricultural chapters.
Non-tariff measures, ad-valorem equivalents, Association of Southeast Asian Nations–India Free Trade Agreement in Goods, Kee–Nicita–Olarreaga framework, effective protection, agricultural trade, India–Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Heckman selection, sanitary and phytosanitary measures
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